Effectiveness Demand Forecasting Analysis for XYZ Brand Jeans (Case Study in PTGP) Ezra Diamond Christo Purwanto, Nofrisel
University of Indonesia
Abstract
The textile and apparel industry is a rapidly developing industry and has an influence on the economy. Despite having high competition, the textile and apparel industry is one of the interesting industries to be made into business opportunities in several big cities. PTGP is a company that has taken business opportunities in the apparel industry for decades. Companies in the mature category are not always successful in doing business. PTGP must close the business branches owned because operating costs are higher than the revenue generated from sales. Efficient operational costs are needed by every company in carrying out the companys operations. Forecasting is a way that can be used for the companys operational effectiveness and operational cost efficiency. The right time series forecasting method can be determined by looking at the historical data of demand for the product. Forecasting accuracy can also be used as a condition for selecting the forecasting method to be used. Single Exponential Smoothing is a forecasting method used in general in various industrial fields. Holt’s Model is a forecasting method used with the influence of trends in the data used. Holt’s Model has more precise accuracy than Single Exponential Smoothing so that the use of Holt’s Model forecasting is more recommended in the textile and apparel industry because there are influential trends in demand.
Keywords: Forecasting, forecasting method, time series, Single Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Model
Topic: Innovation, IT, Operations and Supply Chain Management
